Saturday, February 09, 2008

Recession to be longer than usual: UMich | U.S. | Reuters

Recession to be longer than usual: UMich | U.S. | Reuters

Here's a quote:
Paradoxically, worsening economic conditions will induce families to save money, reinforcing the drag on an economy that has become largely reliant on consumer spending.

True, but increasing US savings would also reduce the trade deficit and would also help shore up the dollar. Increased savings may also do more to boost lending than the current reduction in the interest rates. Increased savings would keep more money in the US system and mitigate the necessity for aggressive monetary policy.

I'm also guessing that consumers with more savings in their accounts would also be a lower credit risk, making them more attractive to banks.

And finally, increased (and sustained) savings in the US means there won't be a generation of pensioners in about 20-40 year without enough money to live off of.

I'm not begging to a long and deep recession, but if it hurts enough to in some ways impact the mentality of the current generation and encourage them to save more, borrow less and spend within their means, then the current period of pain will be worth it in the long term.

And oh yeah… what would a post be without my obligatory warning on inflation (which increased savings would also help mitigate.)

Inflation pressures will linger despite the retrenchment in consumer spending, complicating the task of policy-makers, the University's Richard Curtin said in a report, citing data from industry group The Conference Board.

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