Working on my new investment strategy

So over the past couple of months/years, my personal finances have become a bit of a mess. I had too many accounts with too many brokers and it was too hard to tell what was going on. So some accounts got super-whacked by the recession and some got brutally-whacked. I wasn’t sure which got whacked the hardest and why so over the past little while I’ve been consolidating all the accounts into one place, so I can get a nice overview of what is going on.

I got phase 1 completed a few weeks back and now have a single view on our various retirement and retail accounts (well, sorta, no sense in going into the gory details.)

Now, what to do with what little cash remains?

The accounts are currently filled with a variety of funds but I get the sense there is a lot of overlap here. Different funds, probably covering the same parts of the market, exist in different accounts; I’m going to have to spend some time untangling and figuring out which are the funds to keep and which I should jettison. Diversity is still your friend, and I think I have a lot of redundancy.

I’ve already done a couple of moves. In one account (Roth IRA) I loaded up on a TIPS fund. Yes, I am very worried about inflation and since that account didn’t have any bonds in it, I took the TIPS mutual fund route. My wife and I have a Roth each so I don’t mind sacrificing growth on one, if I think it is a little less risky. Right now, a TIPS mutual fund sounds like the right kind of risk mitigation.

In the retail account, I went back to an old friend, EWZ (Brazil ETF.) I made pretty good money off if this ETF over the past 5-6 years. Last year I fell asleep at the wheel and got totally spanked in Oct when this ETF fell like a ton of bricks (BRICs?)

Anyway it seems to be coming back and while I’ve missed some of the early upside, there may be more to come (I hope!) I’ve always liked Brazil. It has a solid financial sector, good exposure to commodities but still pretty diversified with a strong manufacturing base as well.

In the retail account I also bought into a California Municipal Bond fund. Yes, I know the state’s finances suck but I’m counting on it not defaulting. The yield may go up on the state’s munis so that may be nice plus I’m looking for a little tax protection.

I’ll let you know as to my other moves. Basically in my other accounts (IRA, Roth IRA) I’ve got a bunch of large-cap funds, which I need to diversify away from, and a REIT, which I may keep, I’m not sure yet.

Inflation genie...

.... we shouldn't let it out of the bottle.

Nouriel Roubini speaks and as you'd expect, the news isn't good (well, he's called Dr. Doom for a reason)
.

I see Roubini covered a lot in the Canadian press. I think his general crappy outlook on the world suits the alienated Canadian perspective.

He's the "ghost of unregulated banks present" and I think Canadian like him because he's walking justification for the regulated bank past that Canada has been through.

Earnings could throw wrench in U.S. stock rally

Great headline.... those dang earnings are sssssooooo darn inconvenient.


Earnings could throw wrench in U.S. stock rally

Missed the last rally...?

...Don't worry, it probably won't last.

The market has been a lousy predictor. People used to say that the stock market predicted 12 out of the last nine recessions. This time, it predicted six out of the last zero economic recoveries. Every time there was a rally, and then the macro[economic] news, the earning news, the financial news was worse, and the market touched a new low.

reportonbusiness.com: A big bear: Markets 'way too optimistic'

Don't worry be happy... or maybe not

I love John Authers... he sorta reminds me of a British, slightly too earnest David Gergen.

Anyways, I'm always looking for some good news in the economy and John provides a bit for us here. Or maybe not... wait to the end when he at the last second puts things into some sort of historical context and suggests we may be more screwed than ever.

Short View: Happy Days

A Checklist for Everyday Investing

Simple advice from Columbia GSB

Public Offering : Post : A+Checklist+for+Everyday+Investing

Retire on Dilbert

Just read Dilbert. It is so simple it is genius, even I get it. As relevant now as it was two years ago.

Dilbert's 9-point financial plan worthy of economics Nobel - MarketWatch

An Alarm Is Blaring: Time to Buy - New York Times

This strikes me as an articulation of the "buy low, sell high" mantra... and right now things seem to be low.

An Alarm Is Blaring: Time to Buy - New York Times

People want large cap exposure...

And I agree. They're pushing XLG on TheStreet.com.

Me? I'm in VV.

The look pretty similar to me but VV has an expense ratio of only 0.07% vs. XLG's 0.2%. Am I missing something?

I've lost my confidence

I woke up this morning, looked at how my stocks are doing and now, harkening back to my awkward high-school days... I have no confidence.

OK fine! Financials do matter...

So here I made the argument that the farther you go from the financial sector, the less of an impact you're feeling from the current recess...ummm... downturn.

Well, despite my efforts to pigeonhole the financial sector, it seems it is really important! At least, according to the newly reformulated DJI. Big oil has been added as well, so I guess that industry is also pretty important.

This news, coupled with manufacturing taking a bit of a back seat on the DJI (Honeywell got booted off) illustrates the direction the US economy is going. Making stuff is out, powering stuff and financing stuff is in.

Hepped up on goof-goof

ok.. fantatic, markets are shooting up. I hope the crash doesn't hurt so hard when the high from the interest rate cut wears off....

BBC NEWS | Business | US rates cut to avoid recession

The Fear Is Palpable. Time To Buy. - Seeking Alpha

Sage advice...In a nutshell... don't worry, be happy.

In a little less flippant way, unless you feel there is something fundamentally wrong with your current portfolio or the capital markets in general, the average investor shouldn't make moves to try to avoid or out-think the market.

Time to re-enter the market?

Two views from Big Picture.... maybe yes.... or... maybe maybe...