China's Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency Idea: Could the SDR Be a Reserve Currency?

China's Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency Idea: Could the SDR Be a Reserve Currency?

This I think is one of the more interesting thoughts on China's push to SDR's as reserve currency:

"Foley: In the short term the costs to the US of losing its role as the reserve currency would be significant as it would lose seignorage benefits and ability to borrow in its own currency. In the longer term, the U.S. would benefit as it would regain some control over its currency. A central currency would make it harder for one country to get into so much debt to another. If the currency was increased along with global GDP it could provide a steady store of value."

Although bitter medicine, the US dollar losing its place as the global reserve currency could actually benefit the US economy in the long-term because it would force the US to lessen its reliance on debt and increase its savings.

Yes, that would cut consumption and lower growth rates, but the growth that does occur will be more stable and sustainable.

India learning from Toronto?

This article on US media companies beginning to favor India over China in Asia reminded me of an earlier article on the success Toronto has had in multiculturalism.

The common thread here is how important it is to be open and welcoming to outside ideas. I don't mean this as a pitch for diversity per se (although diversity in its own right is a laudable goal.) But rather to highlight that encouraging a diversity of people and of ideas is good for business, helps grow markets and can actually contribute to social cohesion. Everyone wants to support society and its institutions because they feel directly vested in their success.

India is less onerous in its demands and regulations on foreign media and as a result is seeing a great influx of new media ideas. I'm sure it is no coincidence that the Indian media landscape is one of the most dynamic on Earth right now. India is currently the source for many pop-culture innovations from movies to music to fashion.

The World Is Upside Down

NAN, that's a new acronym for me. It means (apparently) newly acquisitive nations and refers to companies from Brazil, Mexico, India and China going on a global buying spree usually snatching up US or European (or Canadian) assets.)

A lot of the action is in commodities, oil and gas, and manufacturing. Those markets are where all the money is currently flowing (well, maybe not manufacturing) so it is not surprising.

The most interesting story mentioned here Grupo Mexico battling with Vedanta Resources for Asarco; a Mexican company fighting with an Indian company to buy an American copper company.

With China being an increasingly larger consumer of commodities, the battle over American assets won't be to better serve the American market, but to make more of an in-road in the Chinese one.

Some may be inclined to think this represents the end of the US market as the world's most influential one, I don't think I would agree with that proposition. However, it does indicate that we are entering an increasingly multipolar era where global companies and "must-win" markets originate from every corner of the globe.



Op-Ed Columnist - The World Is Upside Down - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com

China and inflation

Paul Krugman again weighs in on China and inflation.

Basically, he says that an increase in the price of Chinese goods is not sufficient to cause US inflation. The actual China cost is just a small percentage of a US price; transportation, overhead and so on form a greater percentage of the total cost of a good.

True. I think China's impact on US inflation is more indirect.

1) China has a huge demand for commodities. It's additional demand is causing the price of the supply to rise.

2) Commodities are priced in US dollars. With the dollar tanking, the price of dollar denominated goods will rise.

This combination will continue to be a nasty one-two punch on the US economy until either demand dries up (not likely) or the dollar strengthens, but it is hard to see how that will happen with interest rates so low and probably going lower.

Slowing China, cheaper commodities

A slowing China could take some of the strain off of the commodities market. China's buying a whole lot of trees and rocks and liquefied dinosaurs and stuff, and that is driving prices up. If they slow down, maybe the prices of commodities will recede a bit as well.

Obviously the question of a slowing China is how controlled it will be. A hard landing has some people losing sleep.

China exports inflation

I guess I'm in the mood to read and write about inflation this evening...

Here's a piece in the NYT about China's inflation being exported to the US.

Krigman, however, thinks the piece overstates the case.

You know, it wasn't that long ago that I'd spend my Saturday nights out partying rather than blogging about economic issues that, in all truth, I really don't know a whole lot about.

In praise of decoupling

A kindler, gentler look at decoupling but I remain unconvinced.

Basically there are two huge drivers to global growth right now, US and China, both are at the center of an ecosystem of other economies feeding into them.

And here's the kicker, China relies on the US.

Here's the money quote:

Diversification will only go so far, however, particularly if US consumption nosedives, says Mr Sheard. “Asia, centred on China, has become even more interlinked into the global economy, the driving impetus of which has been the US,” he said. It is hard to be global and decoupled at the same time.

American recession, global inflation?

I heard from an economist the other day that the world may be heading towards both a US and China slow-down. The US slow-down (recession) he argued will be relatively mild and not have a great impact outside the US. A China slow-down would hurt emerging countries (because China buys all of their commodities) but will have little impact on the West.

But what about a US recession and continuing strength in China? Economic growth slows domestically and the dollar drops, but global prices remain high and even climb?

The US faces recession from within, and inflation from without. That could greatly exacerbate what may otherwise be a mild US slow-down.

The economy | A delicate condition | Economist.com