What retails sales really look like

Scroll to the bottom of this post to see what retail sales really look like.

Yesterday, there was a lot of excitmenet about retail sales actually ticking up.

But it seems that if you factor in inflation (ie: nominal sales numbers looking good not because there was more valume of sales, but because prices were higher), retail sales were negative.

Succumbing to unnatural forces

From the Big Picture.

Here's the money quote:

Consider how many of our current problems are due to ill-considered poorly thought attempts to avoid a cyclical recession. Not only is our mess man-made, but it was totally unnecessary.

Fed and a new paradigm?

As usual, the Big Picture succinctly puts into words what many of us may be thinking... is it really the Fed's job to be bailing out the markets? I'm hurting as much as the next guy with the markets tumbling, but it strikes me that much of the cause of the current pain is due to too much meddling in the past (excessive policies on both the monetary and fiscal fronts). Therefore, I'd be willing to go through some pain now to ensure smoother, more sustainable growth in the future.

We're had at least two bubbles in less than a decade... tech and housing (and I suppose an emerging market bubble that is biting me in the ass right now). So maybe this is the new paradigm; in search of increasingly more rapid growth, we need to also be prepared for more frequent bubbles and their subsequent bursts.



The Big Picture | Is the Fed a Paper Tiger?

So Much for the Decoupling . . . .

wait... that is what I just said.

The Big Picture | So Much for the Decoupling . . . .

The bears are having their day it seems, but I would be suspicious of too much kodiak chest-thumping. If you claim anything long enough (like the economy is about to tank) it is bound to come true sooner or later.

Time to re-enter the market?

Two views from Big Picture.... maybe yes.... or... maybe maybe...