Bathing in Inflation?

Taking a warm bath in all the new money floating around may feel good now, what with the frozen credit markets, but as the economy stops cooling and begins to warm up (even ever so slightly), will the rising temperatures also cause inflation to heat up. (I think this metaphor really got away from me.)

To me, this is a key point:

Meltzer says political pressure will prevent Bernanke, 55, and fellow policy makers from withdrawing liquidity quickly enough as the economy recovers. That’s similar to the pattern that occurred back in the 1970s, he says. Then-Chairman Arthur Burns allowed excessive money-supply growth because he was unable or unwilling to resist pressure from President Richard Nixon’s White House to hold down unemployment, leading to the “great inflation” of that era, he says.

A lot of floating money may make sense now, but soon the time may be upon us when we need to start drying out this extra liquidity (run-away metaphor again...really, I shouldn't quit my day job...) Hopefully a sense of pragmatism has taken over the financial ruling class and they'll be willing to take the tough decisions to cool down inflation at the first sighting.

Bernanke Bet on Keynes Has Meltzer Seeing 1970s-Style Inflation - Bloomberg.com

Hoping for higher rates

So here's my call.. I'd love to see interest rates begin to creep up, it would add some stability to the US markets. Higher rates would send a signal to the market that the fed is serious about shoring up the dollar and tackling any hint of inflation (well, it is more than a hint now).

So higher rates would mean strong dollar, curb in oil prices and a reduction in inflation expectations. All those things would be a huge help.

Don't think it would impact consumer lending right now because how much of it is now going on? Would hurt an already wounded housing market, though.

Has Danger to U.S. Economy 'Diminished'? : NPR

Real Time Economics : Oil Bubble? The Debate Rages

Are oil prices in a bubble? Methinks yes, sorta. I believe much of the problem is fundamentally a demand one, there is too much of it. And as a supporter of the peak-oil theory, I think everything we do on the supply side will be a temporary fix and not really worth the trouble. Indeed it will cause more trouble (climate change) and will hurry the draining of existing oil (new supplies lower prices, increases demand, and consumes whats left of the oil at faster rates.)

So where is the "sorta"? Well, I think some speculation and the low dollar/interest rates have fueled (pardon the pun) some irrational exhuberence. It maybe is not leading up to a dot-com style bubble, but a bubble none-the-less.

Here is my thought on what will pop the bubble: interest rates finally hit bottow and the Fed begins to raise them to combat inflation and support the dollar. That's my call on how the price of oil may drop. We'll see....

Real Time Economics : Oil Bubble? The Debate Rages

For the Fed, a Recession -- Not Inflation -- Poses Greater Threat - WSJ.com

Can't think of any commentary at the moment... but take a minute to go through this, it is a good read.

China and inflation

Paul Krugman again weighs in on China and inflation.

Basically, he says that an increase in the price of Chinese goods is not sufficient to cause US inflation. The actual China cost is just a small percentage of a US price; transportation, overhead and so on form a greater percentage of the total cost of a good.

True. I think China's impact on US inflation is more indirect.

1) China has a huge demand for commodities. It's additional demand is causing the price of the supply to rise.

2) Commodities are priced in US dollars. With the dollar tanking, the price of dollar denominated goods will rise.

This combination will continue to be a nasty one-two punch on the US economy until either demand dries up (not likely) or the dollar strengthens, but it is hard to see how that will happen with interest rates so low and probably going lower.

Thoughts on deficit drop

Some quick thoughts on whythe drop in the US trade deficit.

Low dollar means foreign goods are more expensive here, so demand drops. Low dollar also means the US goods are cheaper elsewhere so demand abroad increases. This may be fine while it lasts, but a low currency is not what I would call a sustainable competitive advantage for the US.

The positive side to this, however, is that exports could help lessen the impact of a recession. Recovery could very well be export-lead.

Low confidence could mean that consumers are spending less, that would worsen the impact of any recession. On the plus side, however, if consumers are spending less, that could mean that they are (hopefully) saving more.

If that becomes sustained, that would be a huge plus because it would keep permanent downward pressure on the trade deficit, could boost liquidity without excessive interest rate cuts, and in the long run will make the individual financial situation of US consumers more stable, especially in their retirement.

The Harvey Dent economy

The economy.... is turning into the deadly Two-Face. Impeding recession pushes interest rates down, but looming inflation would push them up.

The money quote:
He said he expects core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, to remain above 2 percent, "which is above the range I consider to be consistent with price stability."

Lacker also said it was worrisome to see inflation at current levels. The overall consumer price index rose 4.1 percent in the 12 months to December, while the core rate, which excludes energy and food, climbed 2.4 percent.

"We can't cut interest rates as aggressively in response to weakness in growth as we otherwise would," Lacker said. "We're going to be posed with some problems this year if inflation doesn't moderate the way we'd like to see it moderate."

Interest rates are down... but who's lending?

Paul Krugman wins the "downer-of-the-day" award... but he's got a point, this current credit crunch sucks worse than a bunch of the previous ones.

Which to my mind raises a question about the Fed... what is the use of cutting interest rates of no one is lending? The current economic malaise was caused by too much cheap money, not a need for more of it.

Hepped up on goof-goof

ok.. fantatic, markets are shooting up. I hope the crash doesn't hurt so hard when the high from the interest rate cut wears off....

BBC NEWS | Business | US rates cut to avoid recession

Inflation vs. Recession

What scares you more, inflation or recession?

Me....I'm more afraid of inflation so I say "boo" to agressive rate cuts.

Fed's Inflation Fears Might Trump Calls for Another Big Rate Cut - WSJ.com