Thursday, February 28, 2008

Brazil tops MSCI

Brazil is now the largest stock market on the MSCI emerging markets index, and as a long-time investor in the Brazilian equity market I have to say this news has brightened up an otherwise less than stellar day.

So, why is Brazil doing so well? The FT has some thoughts here (watch the video too).

While I buy the argument that the commodities is fueling the bull run, I don't have much support for the "decoupling argument" -- that perturbations in the US market have less and less impact on the emerging markets. (How can the world markets be simultaneously "globalized" and "decoupled"?)

That said, Brazil's insular nature seems to have at least buffered Brazil from what is going on in the global markets. Credit within Brazil remains strong, although IPOs have dropped. The FT also notes that Brazil responded favorably to the Fed's drop in interest rates (how does that play into the decoupling theory?)

Brazil is doing uniquely well as a commodity exporter based of off the huge recent discoveries by Petrobras and the positive impact that news had on its stock price.

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